El riesgo de las pensiones en el escenario de una mayor esperanza de vida
“Una imagen vale más que mil palabras”, o eso dicen. En la parte superior pueden ustedes observar el gráfico de la población española y un cálculo de su evolución para los próximos años.
Según estudios del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), «si todos viviéramos tres años más que los que marca nuestra actual expectativa de vida, los costes relacionados con las pensiones podrían crecer hasta un 50% para la economías avanzadas y emergentes. Definitivamente, los gobiernos, los fondos de pensiones y los individuos están subestimando seriamente las perspectivas de una vida más larga de lo anticipado. Si no tomamos medidas, ¿cómo podemos enfrentar este reto?». Con estas declaraciones, el FMI alertaba sobre los posibles efectos que va a tener en un futuro el aumento de la longevidad en el sistema de pensiones públicas, así como sobre la perspectiva de crecimiento de los países afectados.
En países como España, la pirámide de población (obsérvese la imagen que ofrecemos a continuación), evoluciona paralelamente al aumento del envejecimiento. Este tipo de pirámide se caracteriza por corresponderse precisamente con un fuerte aumento de la esperanza de vida pero, a la par, también con tasas de nacimiento muy bajas.
¿Qué supone, pues, el envejecimiento de la población? Disponer de una menor masa laboral, lo que implica una merma en el crecimiento a medio plazo y una reducción drástica de la aportación al sistema de pensiones públicas. Recordemos, que en el caso de España, la seguridad social se rige por el sistema de reparto, también conocido como el sistema solidario. ¿Cómo funciona? Las cuotas que pagan los trabajadores no son para sí mismos, sino para toda la colectividad. El dinero recaudado se utiliza para sufragar la viudedad de un trabajador que fallece, la jubilación de otro que deja la vida laboral activa, la pensión de orfandad de un menor, etc.
Para hacer frente a este grave problema, el FMI (Fondo Monetario Internacional) recomienda llevar a cabo medidas drásticas, muchas de las cuales ya se están implantando: retraso en la edad de jubilación, recorte en las pensiones públicas, aumento de las cotizaciones, posibilidad de que los Estados puedan contratar coberturas con aseguradoras, que los gobiernos fomenten el ahorro privado para que su aportación a la hora de la jubilación sea tan importante como la pensión pública, etc.
Estas medidas son sólo una muestra de la tónica que va regir en un futuro. Las pensiones públicas tenderán a ser de subsistencia lo que hará necesario tener un complemento privado. Por ello, es imprescindible planificar la jubilación también por el sistema privado. La gente joven (que es la más afectada), debería empezar a planificar su jubilación en el mismo momento en que empieza a obtener ingresos (y siempre que su economía doméstica así se lo permita), debe ser rigurosa con su plan de jubilación y ponerse en manos de un profesional que le ayude a encontrar los mejores instrumentos y activos que se adapten a su perfil y objetivos.
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