¿Por qué no suele ser aconsejable invertir durante el mes de agosto?

Si ustedes son aficionados a la bolsa, habrán escuchado en infinidad de ocasiones, la expresión: «sell in May and go away», que traducido al castellano viene a significar, «vende en Mayo y vete (del mercado se entiende).

Realmente, esta expresión tiene un apoyo empírico detrás y es que si uno tira de estadísticas, durante los últimos años (y hablamos de muchos años), los periodos que comprenden los meses de primavera y verano, suelen ser menos rentables que el resto de periodos del año. Lo cierto es que hay años que esta premisa se cumple a la perfección y años que no, pero uno de los factores que suele favorecer a que esta expresión se cumpla, son los meses de verano.

¿Por qué el verano es más peligroso?

En los meses de verano, especialmente en el mes de agosto, el volumen de contratación baja considerablemente con respecto al resto del año. Esto es así porque muchos operadores y gestores de fondos de inversión se cogen como es lógico, vacaciones.

El echo de que baje el volumen de contratación puede provocar que determinadas noticias, se «magnifiquen» en los mercados bursátiles. No es lo mismo que una acción presente malos resultados por ejemplo en un mes de gran actividad como pueda ser enero o diciembre, a que lo haga en el mes de agosto. De hecho, si se fijan en las presentaciones de resultados que se producen en el mes de agosto, podrán observar como los movimientos intradía que tienen las acciones que presentan resultados, suelen ser bastante superiores a la media.

Si lo piensan esto es bastante lógico, ya que si hay pocos participantes en el mercado, se puede producir con mayor facilidad que una orden de venta importante por ejemplo, logre atacar zonas de soporte o zonas de stop loss con mayor sencillez que en otro momento.

Lógicamente, este tipo de movimientos más agresivos durante el mes de agosto, se puede producir también al alza. Una buena noticia económica puede provocar que rápidamente se produzcan cierres de cortos u órdenes de compra masivas, que al no encontrar suficientes títulos en la contrapartida provoquen un fuerte movimiento de barrido al alza.

Efecto contagio

Que una acción que tenga cierta importancia dentro de un índice o sector, presente malos o buenos resultados durante el verano, y que esto provoque un fuerte movimiento al alza o a la baja de su cotización; puede hacer a su vez que otros valores del sector o incluso el índice tenga un movimiento similar, únicamente por un «efecto contagio». Si por ejemplo un valor como el Banco Santander presenta unos resultados brillantes y se pone a subir un 5%, será muy factible que el resto del sectorial bancario también tenga subidas de cierta magnitud.

Lógicamente, el «efecto contagio» se puede producir en cualquier momento del año, pero es en los meses de verano cuando la volatilidad que se puede generar ante cualquier noticia, puede hacer que el comportamiento de un índice o sector, derivado del «efecto contagio», sea más relevante.

 

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