Conclusiones de este 2018: un año complicado.

A pocos días para que termine el año 2018, un año muy complicado de manejar, nos gustaría hacer una nota resumen de qué es lo que ha pasado y dónde ha habido los principales problemas.

Año históricamente complicado para la renta fija

Uno de los factores que este año ha condicionado el comportamiento de muchas carteras de inversión, ha sido que la renta fija, que como saben es uno de los activos conservadores por excelencia, no ha logrado generar rendimientos positivos. Es más, la gran mayoría de activos de renta fija en euros, ha tenido pérdidas en este año.

Como saben, las subidas de tipos de interés, afectan negativamente a los precios de los bonos, por lo que en un escenario de subida de tipos de interés, la renta fija tiende a sufrir, especialmente en vencimientos a largo plazo.

Mucha incertidumbre en las bolsas

Al mal comportamiento de la renta fija, se ha sumado un año de muchas incertidumbres, donde han destacado tres acontecimientos por encima del resto: la guerra comercial entre China y Estados Unidos (el más importante), los presupuestos italianos y el Brexit.

Además de estos factores, también ha habido problemas con las ventas que durante la parte final del año se han visto en el sector tecnológico, especialmente en las grandes compañías que habían subido fuertemente en años anteriores, como consecuencia de la subida de tipos de interés en Estados Unidos.

¿Cómo parece que empezará 2019?

De cara al próximo año, todo parece indicar que aunque hay una cierta relajación en estas incertidumbres, cualquier escenario sigue abierto.

Por un lado, la guerra comercial parece que está en una fase de acercamiento de posturas entre China y Estados Unidos, aunque hasta que no se llegue a un acuerdo en firme, cualquier noticia o rumor, hará que los mercados tengan volatilidad.

Por otro lado, los presupuestos italianos parecen enfocados en la buena dirección, con una predisposición favorable tanto de Bruselas como de Italia en llegar a un acuerdo.

Respecto a la resolución del Brexit, quizás es uno de los focos de tensión que más posibles resoluciones tiene, siendo el apoyo del Parlamento a May (cosa que vemos poco probable a día de hoy), el único escenario realmente bueno que vemos. Otros escenarios, darían volatilidad al mercado y más incertidumbres.

En cuanto a activos, seguimos viendo dificultades para que la renta fija vuelva a generar rentabilidades positivas y seguimos considerando que la volatilidad en los mercados ha llegado para quedarse.

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