Novedades en la guerra comercial: E.E.U.U. aplica un 10% a las exportaciones chinas.

Si ustedes son asiduos seguidores de los mercados financieros, sabrán que durante estos últimos meses el comportamiento de las principales bolsas mundiales ha estado marcado por el enfrentamiento comercial que inició Donald Trump contra China en un inicio, y que posteriormente ha ido extendiendo a través de declaraciones en su medio favorito (Twitter), contra la Unión Europea y Japón.

Esto ha provocado un fuerte incremento de las incertidumbres, lo que se ha traducido en una rebaja drástica del volumen de contratación en los mercados, y en un comportamiento errático de las bolsas, pero siempre con un cierto sesgo bajista, especialmente en las bolsas europeas y por supuestos en las bolsas de los mercados emergentes. Mucho más contenido ha sido el comportamiento de las bolsas norteamericanas, que han continuado con su buen comportamiento salvo las grandes empresas tecnológicas (recogidas en el Nasdaq) que sí han sufrido correcciones puntuales de cierto calado.

El miedo a que los aranceles de Trump puedan suponer un frenazo al crecimiento económico global, es algo que está muy presente en el mercado, por lo que cualquier noticia que se vaya conociendo sobre la evolución de la guerra comercial, es relevante.

Ayer, conocíamos que Trump, aplicará (desde este mes) aranceles de un 10% a el equivalente a 200.000 millones de dólares de exportaciones chinas. Este gravamen subirá al 25% en enero del próximo año, en el caso de que no se llegue a un acuerdo satisfactorio. El Presidente norteamericano, también avisaba de que en caso de que China tomara algún tipo de represalia, se incrementaría el montante total de productos exportados sobre los que aplicar aranceles.

Y aquí es quizás donde radica el principal aspecto de presión que está manejando Trump en esta guerra comercial. A fecha de hoy, las exportaciones chinas a Estados Unidos, son muy superiores a las exportaciones norteamericanas a China, por lo que el Gobierno del gigante asiático, no contaría con la misma «fuerza de negociación» que la administración de Trump.

De todas formas, lo que el consenso de mercado espera es que haya un acuerdo final que pueda «contentar» a ambos contendientes, y que frene esta situación que al fin y al cabo y si lo piensan con calma, no beneficia a ninguno de los dos países.

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